Sudan, South Sudan: Border Dispute a Protracted but Limited Conflict
April 7, 2012 | 1404 GMT
Sudan and South Sudan agreed to a cease-fire during African Union-led negotiations in Ethiopia on April 4. The agreement follows cross-border attacks between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA), a South Sudanese militia group, on March 25-27 and on April 1. The attacks took place along the oil-rich border between South Sudan's Unity state and Sudan's South Kordofan state.
The two countries have been working to negotiate cooperation agreements since South Sudan became an independent state in July 2011. But deeply contentious issues, including border demarcation, continue to provoke intermittent conflict. While the border issue may trigger renewed conflict in the future, military, economic and political constraints will prevent this issue from evolving into a larger conflict.
Analysis
The Sudan-South Sudan border is not clearly defined; the two states failed to finalize an agreement prior to South Sudan's independence. That the border region accounts for such a large percentage of the countries' combined oil production compounds the issue. Oil blocks underneath South Kordofan and Unity states, as well as Upper Nile and Blue Nile states, yield about 80 percent of the countries' approximately 500,000 barrel-per-day capacity.
Unsurprisingly, each side wants to establish a border that places more oil reserves in its own territory. Sudan and South Sudan rely heavily on oil revenues for their respective national budgets -- indeed, oil revenues have constituted roughly 60 percent and 95 percent of Sudan and South Sudan's budgets, respectively. Khartoum and Juba have sought to diversify their economies, but these efforts remain long-term goals.
Both countries have deployed their military forces to the states in question to ensure territorial control. In this regard, Sudan has the advantage: Between 20,000 and 50,000 SAF personnel are deployed to the border at any given time. South Sudan has a significantly smaller regular army -- only 5,000 or so troops are deployed to Unity state -- but Juba's strength lies in its proxy militias. Under the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) alliance, which comprises the Justice and Equality Movement, two factions of the Sudanese Liberation Movement and forces under the SPLA-North grouping, as many as 20,000 militiamen with ethnic and political links to South Sudan are active in Sudanese territory.
With these security forces, both governments are trying to influence border demarcation negotiations while the situation is still in flux. Sudan would like to forcibly seize territory, control oil fields and eliminate South Sudan's ability to destabilize the border. But despite its superior numbers, Sudan cannot achieve these goals. In addition to SPLA units deployed to the border, pro-Juba rebels with knowledge of a region that contains no natural barriers for Khartoum can severely disrupt Sudan's military supply lines and exposed oil pipelines in the area.
Military constraints aside, both governments are under economic and political pressure from their oil sector partners, most notably China and India. As the major stakeholders in the cross-border oil blocks, Beijing and New Delhi want Juba and Khartoum to negotiate an agreement without any disruption to oil production. The United States, a significant political supporter of South Sudan's independence bid, has also pressured South Sudan to rein in SRF militias and to refrain from provocative SPLA movements into Sudan.
Furthermore, international groups keep watch along the border. A U.N. peacekeeping force that includes 4,000 Ethiopians is deployed to the contested Abyei region on the Sudan-South Sudan border. It has also been proposed that U.N. peacekeepers currently in Sudan's Darfur region redeploy to South Sudan to supplement border security measures.
Negotiations between Sudanese and South Sudanese envoys will likely resume in Addis Ababa in the coming days, and successful talks there could pave the way for a bilateral Sudan-South Sudan state visit. With sovereignty over oil production at stake, the conflict at the border likely will be a protracted one. However, external political and economic pressure, as well as internal military shortcomings, will prevent the situation from escalating into a significantly larger or more severe conflict.
